Production Cuts and Maintenance Amid Loss Pressure, National Metallurgical Alumina Operating Capacity May Further Decline in April [SMM Analysis]

SMM March 28 News: According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in March 2025 (31 days) increased by 8.86% MoM and 11.32% YoY. By the end of March, China's existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity was around 105.02 million mt, with operating capacity down 1.68% MoM and the operating rate at 84.64%. During the month, operating capacity at domestic alumina refineries varied, but overall, national metallurgical alumina operating capacity declined MoM. In terms of new capacity, some commissioned capacity in Guangxi started production. On the production cuts side, as alumina prices continued to fall while ore prices remained high, some alumina producers chose to conduct maintenance under loss pressure, while others reduced production, leading to a pullback in the operating rate. Although recent alumina operating capacity has decreased, alumina supply still exceeds domestic aluminum production demand. In addition, as overseas alumina prices fell, the domestic alumina export window closed, and except for some fixed flows to Russia, alumina export demand was limited. In the short term, spot market supply of alumina may remain relatively loose, and spot prices may continue to fluctuate downward in the near term. Next month's forecast: Currently, many alumina refineries have reported phased maintenance plans for April, and some refineries have adjusted their operating capacity. In addition, the originally planned commissioning time for new capacity in Guangxi and Hebei is approaching, but the specific commissioning time is undecided, and SMM will continue to track it. Overall, domestic metallurgical alumina operating capacity in April may see further reductions, with expected operating capacity of 87.23 million mt/year. Continued attention should be paid to changes in alumina capacity and alumina import and export conditions. (The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.) Data source: SMM Click the SMM industry database for more information (Mingxin Guo 021-51595800)